Behind the growth rate of 400% to 10%, the new energy vehicle market has experienced pains.
the rapid development of new energy vehicles in the past few years, the reduction of subsidies, and the market shock after the crackdown on "cheating on subsidies" have puzzled many entrepreneurs: does the government still support new energy vehicles? The answer is yes. New energy vehicles are not only an important part of China's strategic emerging industries, but also industrial products that promote energy conservation and low carbon. So, the development of new energy vehicles is suffering. Where is the new kinetic energy
"at this stage of China's economic development, the rise of traditional kinetic energy has been limited, but the new economy and new kinetic energy are booming." Premier Li Keqiang had a wonderful discussion on the new normal of the economy as early as last year. He also used the "S-curve" to illustrate that there is a painful period in the transformation of the old and new kinetic energy of China's economy. As long as we overcome the current development bottleneck, we can bring out new kinetic energy
the so-called "S-curve" theory means that the growth of each technology is an independent "S-curve". A technology has made slow technological progress during the introduction period. Once it enters the growth period, it will show exponential growth. However, when it enters the mature period, it will move towards the top of the curve, resulting in the slowdown of growth rate and lack of power
"China's new energy vehicles are a special industry, which are obviously guided by industrial policies." Yuangangming, a researcher at the China and world economy research center of Tsinghua University, told the China Economic Herald that industrial policies should first play a guiding role, and then gradually turn over to the market to play a decisive role after the market is mature. "Only in this way can a reasonable 'S-curve' be completed." That is to say, new energy vehicles have not yet popularized new technologies, and when faced with market risks, the country needs appropriate and non offside industrial policies; When the opportunity is ripe, the government should gradually withdraw its hand and provide guidance and support to help the market mature
the development opportunity lies in improving the industrial chain
up to now, China has become the country with the largest number of new energy vehicles in the world. In addition, from the perspective of enterprises, China has a number of excellent new energy vehicle enterprises. In 2016, BYD ranked first in the world in terms of sales volume, and BAIC, Jiangling, SAIC, Chery and Geely also ranked first in the world. The technical level of new energy buses has also been greatly improved in recent years, and the hybrid power has reached the international leading level. The development momentum of power battery is also good. Leading enterprises such as BYD, Ningde times and GuoXuan have all performed very well
has China's new energy vehicles entered a period of rapid development? "No." Wangbinggang, the expert group leader of the national clean vehicle action coordination leading group and the distinguished expert of the 863 Program of the Ministry of science and technology for major electric vehicle science and technology projects, said that the basic conditions for entering the rapid development period should be that the product cost performance basically reaches the level of competition with traditional vehicles and a relatively complete industrial chain with international competitiveness should be built; There are also two signs of entering the rapid development period, namely, the transformation of policy thrust into market thrust and the realization of private purchase
wangbinggang's judgment represents the opinions of most research institutions. In the report on in-depth investigation of China's new energy automobile industry chain and prediction of investment prospects in, CIC consultants pointed out that in the whole vehicle manufacturing sector, since the bus enterprises still drive the industry the most, their technical content and market capacity are somewhat different from those of car manufacturers, and they are not mainly private purchases, so their ability to control the market is relatively weak. PolyOne has brought many high-performance polymers and colorant solutions to the 7th wire China 2016. At the same time, passenger cars are also the main beneficiary of new energy vehicle subsidies. "The policy factors are still dominant, the market is lack of spontaneous impetus, and consumers buy from the price." The above research institution said, "in general, the profitability of the new energy automobile industry chain at this stage presents a development track under the typical policy plus."
the market is suffering.
the production and sales of new energy vehicles have soared, which can not be separated from the strong promotion of the national subsidy policy. The upsurge of electric vehicles has even triggered the development of lithium and cobalt (important battery raw materials) and other bulk commodities in China. Yang zongkun's Polyurethane high-tech new material research and development expert team is willing to actively trade with colleagues in the industry. Benefiting from the subsidy encouragement and hot sales, more than 200 companies announced plans to produce and sell new energy vehicles in China
but for some enterprises, the gold rush has ended before it started. At the end of last year, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other four ministries and commissions issued the "notice on adjusting the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles", announcing that the sales subsidy for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% and will be phased out. This year, the Ministry of industry and information technology cracked down on "swindling subsidies" and imposed administrative penalties on four enterprises, including Jinlong United Automobile Industry (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Henan Shaolin Bus Co., Ltd. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology also "named" seven new energy vehicle enterprises in favor of high-quality steel without strain aging, punished seven vehicle enterprises such as Jinhua youth Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd., SAIC Tangshan Bus Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Lifan Passenger Vehicle Co., Ltd., suspended seven enterprises from applying for the qualification of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles and ordered them to carry out rectification for two months as required
up to now, except that Suzhou jimsy Bus Manufacturing Co., Ltd. in the list of the first batch of penalties has become the only enterprise whose vehicle production qualification has been cancelled, a total of 11 new energy vehicle enterprises named by the Ministry of industry and information technology have all been rectified in place. After several rounds of Strictly Standardizing the subsidy policy for the new energy market, the "cheating compensation" behavior of enterprises may be greatly reduced. In the view of insiders, "the new energy bus market is the hardest hit area of" cheating compensation ". After severe punishment, enterprises have to be cautious."
the "compensation fraud" incident reflects that the market is still immature, and new energy vehicle enterprises need to strengthen themselves. Xuhaidong, Assistant Secretary General of the China Association of automobile manufacturers, said: "the market will always be the survival of the fittest. Only companies with excellent performance will survive. Generally, it needs some integration, rather than hundreds of companies producing the same low-end cars."
if any company has been led astray by new energy vehicles to some extent, the most striking example is that the previous report proposed that 8 ~ 10 or even 12 cavities may be LETV in trouble. Jiayueting, founder of LETV, publicly admitted last year that the rapid expansion into new energy vehicles was "trying to burn money". However, LETV is in trouble and has shelved the project of building a factory in the United States and being operated by its American partner Faraday in the future
let the market play a decisive role
the pain of the development of new energy vehicles comes from the "shrinkage" of national policies. The reduction of subsidies has a huge impact on the profits of automobile enterprises. However, new energy vehicles have enjoyed the national financial encouragement for many years. As a new industrial product, finding a technological breakthrough point and significantly reducing its manufacturing cost is an effective way to deal with market fluctuations
"S-curve" theory has important guiding and practical significance for the current transformation of China's old and new economic growth kinetic energy, and supports the traditional kinetic energy of China's economic growth to the top of the "S-curve". China's new energy vehicle industry is an industry with a very urgent time. Therefore, in recent years, the Chinese government has made great efforts to provide hundreds of billions of yuan of financial subsidies every year to promote the new energy vehicle industry, making China's new energy vehicle production and sales at the same starting line as many international enterprises
yuangangming said that the main driving force for the rapid growth of new energy vehicles was the subsidy of the traditional kinetic energy, but the traditional kinetic energy has begun to move towards the "ceiling" of the "S-curve" and is facing the "inflection point" of transformation. If we continue to rely on "strong stimulus" to maintain the high-speed growth in the past, it may lead to diminishing returns on investment, resulting in more "zombie enterprises", overcapacity, technology retrogression and other phenomena. "After all, making cars cannot always rely on state subsidies." Yuangangming judged that when the old kinetic energy development (enterprises rely on subsidy policies) is in trouble, new kinetic energy (Technology) must keep up, and new energy vehicles can continue to develop upward
according to the data, since 2013, with the intensive introduction of various national support policies, the output of new energy vehicles in China has jumped from 17000 to 379000, with an average annual growth rate of nearly 400%. However, by the first may of this year, the growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles had dropped to about 10%. Yuangangming believes that "the policy seems to be more and more strict. In fact, it is encouraging innovation and technological progress, rather than blindly allowing enterprises to eat subsidies.
of course, the government's reduction of subsidies is not to quit the management industry, but gradually become an" invisible hand ". "Take the market as the main body, give play to its vitality, and adjust the direction with industrial policy as a supplement." Yuangangming frankly said that "the market is omnipotent" and "the government is omnipotent" are wrong. The new energy vehicle country has been giving active guidance. Now there is pain. It is necessary to gradually play the decisive role of the market, which is also the key to whether the "S-curve" can rise. After all, the new energy automobile industry needs to stand on the world stage. Only when the enterprise grows and has strong pressure resistance can it be expected to reflect the advantages of "made in China". "The five years from 2016 to 2020 are the key period of introduction and cultivation, which requires great efforts from the government and enterprises."