New energy vehicles will continue to develop rapid

2022-07-27
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Across the turning point, new energy vehicles will continue to develop greatly. In 2016, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 177000 and 170000 respectively, an increase of 125% and 126.9% year-on-year respectively. In 2016, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 177000 and 170000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 125% and 126.9% respectively. Although it is still in the state of doubling, it is far from the expected annual production and sales of 700000 vehicles proposed by the China Automobile Industry Association. Whether China's new energy vehicle market can continue to make rapid progress and what problems exist in the market need to be solved as soon as possible may be more important than the production and sales of 700000 vehicles

at the 2016 "Blue Book of new energy vehicles" International Forum held by China Automotive Technology Research Center in Beijing on August 1, wuzhixin, deputy director of China Automotive Technology Research Center, said that with the support of a series of incentive policies such as scientific and technological innovation and fiscal and tax subsidies in the national three five-year plan, China's new energy vehicle industry has made remarkable achievements and achieved the phased goals of 2015 in the plan, It has crossed the turning point from industrial cultivation to large-scale development

wuzhixin didn't use words like the first year. Obviously, he didn't want to deliberately indicate the importance of a certain year. The formulation of the turning point aims at the healthy and sustainable development of the new energy automobile industry. At the same time, he also stressed that the new energy vehicle industry system has been basically established, the technical level has been significantly improved, and the promotion and application has achieved results. However, it is also faced with such problems as prominent shortcomings in charging facilities, urgent need to break through power batteries, emerging safety hazards, and need to improve supporting policies

improve the use frequency of new energy vehicles

for the current situation and future development direction of the new energy vehicle industry, Dr. Liu Bin, director of the new energy vehicle research office of the Information Institute of the automobile center of China, has an excellent chemical corrosion resistance. He has his own understanding and summarized it with addition, subtraction, multiplication and division

addition is mainly to add from both the demand side and the supply side to establish a comprehensive, multi angle and powerful policy system for promotion and application. On the demand side, it is suggested that local subsidies should be gradually shifted from the current purchase link to the use link, and local governments should be encouraged to establish support policies based on charging capacity or pure electric mileage, and change the purchase subsidies to annual use subsidies. At the same time, support measures such as preferential parking fees and reduction of road and Bridge charges should be introduced as soon as possible, and a new mechanism with more use and more subsidies should be established to improve the use frequency of new energy vehicles. On the supply side, it mainly refers to some good foreign experience, such as the new energy vehicle credit (or quota) management method, requiring automobile manufacturers to undertake the production and marketing obligations of new energy vehicles, so as to establish a long-term mechanism for fuel vehicles to feed back new energy vehicles

subtraction, mainly in terms of access management and financial subsidies. While encouraging more social capital to invest in new energy vehicles, fiscal and tax support has shifted from the generalized system of preferences to rewarding the good and punishing the bad. In terms of the support mechanism, we should increase the use requirements through the gradual decline of the subsidy amount, such as the need to reach a certain driving range

multiplication, the state should pay attention to the multiplication effect of subsidies, technological breakthroughs and industrial integration development, and realize the leapfrog development of industries in terms of investment pulling, technological leapfrogging and cross-border cooperation. It is predicted that during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the scale of relevant subsidies will reach more than 100 billion yuan, which will drive social investment of nearly 1.8 trillion yuan and achieve the development goal of 100 billion yuan to drive trillion yuan of industries

division to eliminate the malpractice in the development of the industry. First, eliminate local protection, carefully sort out local policies related to new energy vehicles, publish local protection policies, list cities with obvious local protection, require rectification within a time limit, and disqualify them from receiving awards for new energy vehicle infrastructure. Second, in view of the low charging utilization rate of plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles, it is suggested to increase the construction of supporting charging facilities and the requirements for pure electric mileage as the conditions for obtaining subsidies. Third, we will increase the penalties for those who cheat on subsidies. Those who apply for subsidies before the production of vehicles, lack of power batteries, and forge key parameters should be eliminated as soon as possible and included in the blacklist to avoid the phenomenon that bad money drives out good money

market heat and chaos coexist

some hot issues in the new energy vehicle industry and market are also mentioned in the forum discussion and the blue book

with regard to the hot investment in the new energy automobile industry, the blue book quoted zhangdongming, an analyst in the automobile industry of Bohai Securities, as saying that during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of direct investment in the new energy automobile industry in exports to emerging countries will also be greatly increased, and the scale is expected to reach 1.73 trillion yuan. In terms of finished vehicles, from 2016 to 2020, the sales volume is expected to reach 600000-3.88 million, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 64%. Obviously, this figure, which has been considered optimistic by the forecasters themselves, is far from the goal that all new production and marketing vehicles will be replaced by new energy vehicles in 10 years, as an authority said. At the same time, this forecast also points out that it is expected that the second half of 2016 will usher in the qualification intensive application period for pure electric passenger vehicle manufacturers, when the inflow of capital outside the industry is expected to accelerate

for the means and harm of local protection, the blue book provides the main means and policy provisions of relevant local protection in China. For example, it is required to set up local production or sales enterprises, support local core parts, set up requirements that exceed national policy standards, require subsidies to be exchanged equally, require the establishment of local small directories in the name of filing, design relevant subsidy standards for local automobile enterprises, exclude plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and exclude micro electric vehicles from the subsidy list

for example, taking a BYD car company as an example, in order to achieve the goal of exchanging investment for market, the company has invested in no less than 10 bases in the country only on electric buses. After obtaining large orders for local buses and taxis, it tries to intervene in the private passenger car market. In addition, at present, this kind of forced investment has moved from vehicle enterprises to power lithium-ion battery enterprises. According to China industry news, a well-known power battery supplier in China has prepared to carry out investment for market production and construction in at least two other places outside the headquarters

the above local protection measures have not only brought huge losses and waste to relevant enterprises, but also affected the promotion plan of the whole new energy vehicle market. For example, in only four months from September to December 2015, more than half of the overall promotion volume from 2013 to 2015 was completed throughout the country. The reason is that most cities tend to promote local new energy vehicle products due to the late introduction of local supporting policies, and the promotion results are uneven. When the promotion period was approaching, a large number of new energy vehicles were launched. Under the interference of local interests, many distortions occurred in the policy

on the issue of compensation fraud, there have also been a variety of tricks that are difficult to detect and find, among which the most common is to upload false certificates. For example, a bus company in Jiangsu is a manufacturer of modified commercial vehicles. In the first half of 2015, its output of electric vehicles was only 25. By the end of that year, the enterprise suddenly experienced explosive growth. In December, 2905 certificates were uploaded in a single month, and the total annual output was 3687 vehicles. If the vehicles that falsely upload the certificate of conformity receive state subsidies, the amount of subsidies will exceed 100 million yuan. Based on the annual production and sales of dozens of vehicles and up to 100 vehicles, it is estimated that the operating revenue of the enterprise has never exceeded 100 million yuan before

it will continue to develop greatly in the next five years

according to a data from Beijing Zhiyan Kexin, in the composition of new energy vehicles, the cost of which is to provide customers with the best service, the battery accounts for about 42%, the electronic control system accounts for 11%, the motor accounts for 10%, the electric drive parts account for 7%, and other parts of the whole vehicle account for 30%. According to the contents of the blue book, the shipment volume of lithium-ion power batteries in China in 2015 was 15.7gwh. The growth rate in 2014 and 2015 exceeded the double rate for two consecutive years, showing a market pattern of supply exceeding demand

according to the battery capacity of new energy vehicle models and the proportion of promotion and application in 2014, the average battery capacity required for new energy vehicles is calculated to be 49kwh. According to the estimation of the demand for new energy vehicles, it is estimated that the demand for power batteries of new energy vehicles in China will reach 29.4gwh in 2016, is expected to exceed 190gwh in 2020, and the market scale is expected to reach nearly 60billion yuan and nearly 300billion yuan respectively

on the other hand, from the development trend of international battery technology, the power battery represented by ternary materials will promote the rapid improvement of the performance of new energy vehicles in the next five years. It is estimated that by 2020, the energy density of new lithium-ion battery is expected to reach wh/kg, the driving range of pure electric vehicles in China will reach km, and the mileage anxiety of consumers will be gradually eliminated. The cost of power battery is expected to decrease by 50%, which will effectively reduce the price of new energy vehicles

in the field of drive motors, Gong Jun, a motor expert of the overall team of the major project of energy saving and new energy vehicles of the National 863 plan, a researcher level senior engineer and general manager of Shanghai electric drive Co., Ltd., believes that after years of development, China's independently developed permanent magnet synchronous motors, AC asynchronous motors and switched reluctance motors have been matched with the industrialization of finished vehicles, The power range of the series products covers the demand for motor power for new energy vehicles below 200kW. In terms of key technical indicators, the power density and efficiency of drive motors in China are basically equivalent to the international level

in terms of infrastructure, by the end of 2015, China had built 3600 charging and replacement power stations and 49000 public charging piles. The number of charging piles that can complete various performance tests of tape, chain, steel wire rope, welding rod, brick and tile and components is obviously insufficient. In the next five years, the construction of charging facilities in China will be further accelerated. By 2020, China will build 12000 centralized charging and exchange power stations and 4.8 million decentralized charging piles. At the same time, in order to speed up the construction process of charging facilities, the Ministry of Finance and other five ministries and commissions have issued incentive policies for the construction of charging facilities for new energy vehicles. It is planned to combine the incentive funds with the perfection of charging facilities to improve the enthusiasm of local governments in building charging facilities

in a sense, the new energy automobile industry has become an arrow, and there is no turning back. As a strategic emerging industry supported by the state, new energy vehicles not only play a crucial role in reducing emissions and improving people's livelihood, but also combine with intelligent technology and Internet technology, which is the ultimate direction of the development of the automotive industry and one of the breakthroughs in the strategic transformation of China's energy structure in the future

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